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Risks & Expected Returns

Review risk levels, expected return cases, and compute weighted averages by risk profile.

Product Risk

Asset Class / Index Risk Level Reasoning
S&P 500 Total ReturnMedium RiskBroad large-cap U.S. equity; moderate volatility and cyclicality.
S&P MidCap 400 Total ReturnMedium–High RiskMid-cap growth potential with higher volatility.
Russell 2000 Total ReturnHigh RiskSmall-caps with high volatility and deeper drawdowns.
Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate (Agg)Low–Medium RiskInvestment-grade bonds; rate and credit risk but less volatile than equities.
SOFR Overnight Index AverageVery Low RiskNear risk-free overnight rate collateralized by U.S. Treasuries.
Gold (Spot)Low–Medium RiskSafe-haven characteristics with meaningful price swings.
Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index (BGCI)Very High RiskCryptocurrencies with extreme volatility and regulatory uncertainty.

Expected Returns (Annualized)

Asset Class / Index Conservative Base Optimistic Projected
S&P 500 Total Return~5%~8–10%~15–16%9%
S&P MidCap 400 Total Return~5–8%~10–13%~15–20%11%
Russell 2000 Total Return~0–5%~8–15%~15–20%+13%
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate (Agg)~2–3%~4–5%~5.5–6.5%5%
SOFR Overnight Index Avg~3–4%~4–4.5%~5%3.5%
Gold (Spot)~0–5%~8–9%~12–15%8.5%
Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto (BGCI)~10–20%~20–40%~40–80%22%
Projected rate is used in calculator below.

Weighted Average Return by Risk Profile

Select a profile to see contribution breakdown and total projected annual return using the projected rates above.


Equity (Large Cap)
0.00%
Equity (Mid Cap)
0.00%
Equity (Small Cap)
0.00%
Bonds (Agg)
0.00%
Gold (Spot)
0.00%
Cash (SOFR)
0.00%
Crypto (BGCI)
0.00%
Contributions shown are allocation × projected rate (percentage points).